The US intelligence service assumes that the war in Ukraine will proceed more slowly.
“We’re seeing some sort of pacing of conflict right now, and we expect that to continue in the coming months,” national intelligence director Avril Haines told the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in California on Saturday (local time). Meanwhile, British intelligence sees Russia’s support for the war dwindling.
No sign of reduction in resistance
Hains said both countries will try to stockpile supplies in preparation for a post-winter counterattack. Despite Russia’s attacks on the Ukrainian power grid and other civilian facilities, there is no sign that Ukraine’s will to resist is waning.
He added that Russia is also trying to hinder Ukraine’s ability to monitor the conflict, and that the economy of Kiev is badly damaged. “Of course this can have an effect over time. How strong they will be depends on how much they attack, what they can do, how resilient the critical infrastructure is and how much we can help them defend it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was surprised that his army was not able to achieve more. “He’s been briefed on the challenges facing the military in Russia. But it’s still unclear to us at this point whether he has a full picture. We see morale and ammo, logistics and a whole bunch of other problems they face.” Russia seems to be consuming its military supplies “quite fast”.
Haines said that while Putin’s political goals in Ukraine may not have changed, US intelligence analysts suggest that Putin may be willing to reduce his short-term military goals “temporarily, with the thought that he may return at a later date”. may come back”.
The war felt by the Russians
Against this backdrop, the Kremlin will find it increasingly difficult to explain the war in Ukraine to its own people, according to a daily intelligence update from the UK’s Ministry of Defense on Sunday. “Given that Russia is unlikely to achieve any significant wartime success in the coming months, it will be increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to get even the tacit approval of the public.”
According to the British, leaked data from Russian officials show that only a quarter of the Russian population now supports the offensive war in Ukraine. At the beginning of the war it was still 80 percent. But the partial mobilization in September made the war feel to many.
112 villages were closed
However, the energy supply situation remained uncertain. “At the moment, 507 places in eight regions of our country have power cuts,” Deputy Interior Minister Yevgeny Jenin told Ukrainian television. “The enemy continues to attack the country’s vital infrastructure.” According to Jenin, Regino Kharkiv was the hardest hit, with 112 villages cut off from the outside world.
The Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed to the APA on Sunday that 21 electricity generators were delivered to Ukraine on Thursday. It was stated that the delivery processed through the Red Cross was intended for Ukrainian hospitals. More deliveries are planned. A total of over 300 generators and transformers have been sent to the country so far. Meanwhile, Germany fears a new wave of refugees due to the war winter. “We are very concerned as these attacks on energy infrastructure mean that many people in freezing temperatures may be forced to leave Ukraine,” Miguel Berger, the German Ambassador to London, told Sky News on Sunday.