The end of Koreanism in Ecuador? : second consecutive defeat of the party of the former president in exile

The victory of businessman Daniel Noboa over Luisa González shows that, despite the domination of Parliament and local governments, the Citizens’ Revolution votes have a ceiling.

This surprised no one, even if it was a comeback: the second candidate to reach the second round, Daniel Noboa, triumphed in this Sunday’s elections against Luisa González, the Correismo candidate , after dominating the polls for weeks. The businessman, who defines himself as a “moderate social democrat,” obtained 52.01% of the vote, compared to 47.9% for González.

But although he is the youngest president in Ecuadorian history, all experts today discuss the figure of Rafael Correa, the former president who suffered the greatest defeat, after having directly elected González to return power to his Citizen Revolution Movement.

Correa not only named González, bet on his loyalty to avoid a betrayal like that accused of Lenin Moreno, but instead he promoted the electoral strategy of Belgium and Mexico, establishing a plan to be able to return to Ecuador. But although belonging to the left, Luisa González sometimes considered herself more conservative than Noboa, especially when the latter seemed to support the idea that women decide in cases of abortion.

The new Ecuadorian president.

A few months ago, little was known about Luisa González: she was a 45-year-old lawyer who appeared from time to time in the media for her statements as a deputy. The spotlight was put on him when Guillermo Lasso activated the “cross death”, and former President Rafael Correa himself asked him to run.

With 33.61% of the vote, González triumphed in the first round, but with a victory that left many doubts about his intention to win the presidency. The polls quickly realized this: the candidate identified as “Correa’s dolphin” carried his unpopularity, leaving him with a ceiling of votes that he tried to break by distancing his speech from that of the former president. By four points, finally, the “outsider” Daniel Noboa convinced more, and will be the Ecuadorian president for the next 18 months.

From Correa’s point of view, this is a failure that, among other things, delays Correa’s plans to return to the country. Just yesterday, if at the beginning the intention was to party along Los Shyris Avenue, in the north center of Quito, theThe Citizens’ Revolution leaders changed their plan and waited for the results in a hotel room.

Luisa González, after knowing the election results. Photo: Reuters.

In response to those who think that this defeat of Correismo is definitive, the analyst of the Citizenship and Development Foundation, Mauricio Alarcón, commented to the newspaper La Nación: “Correismo has never disappeared, it was the first force during of the last elections. process. The fact that he didn’t win in 2021 because he ran a bad candidate doesn’t mean he was seriously hurt.”

The presidential defeat, however, does not reflect the party’s local results, both in town halls and in the National Assembly. In February, Correismo asserted itself in Quito and Guayaquil, the two most important mayors of Ecuador, by withdrawing this second city from the Social Christian Party, in power for 30 years.

In the National Assembly, Correa’s movement remains the largest group, with around 53 deputies, although votes from abroad have yet to be counted. SO, The former president’s left will have weight in the House, but not enough to obtain a majority.

President Guillermo Lasso, voting in Guayaquil. Photo: AP.

Thus, the one who will lose the most in this second round is the leader of the movement, who will remain between Belgium and Mexico. “Rafael Correa, the man behind the candidate and the name around which the country’s politics has revolved over the past two decades, He was the last beneficiary of this defeat which further exiles his figure from the life of Ecuadorians. These early elections were his ticket to power,” declares El País.

He himself reacted through X to the defeat of Luisa González. “Dear Fatherland, Great Fatherland: This time we didn’t succeed. We are faced with enormous powers. A candidate was even assassinated to prevent our victory . Lenín Moreno’s betrayal continues to wreak havoc, but no one can doubt that ultimately Ecuador will return to the path of development and Latin American integration. “Until victory always!” declared the former president.

Since El País, there has been speculation about the former president’s aborted project. “This setback ruins a carefully crafted plan by the former president, who has lived in Belgium since 2017, to avoid prison in Ecuador for a 2020 corruption conviction, which he considers a frame-up. This path involved placing a loyal squire in the presidency, in this case González, once in power, convene a Constituent Assembly and declare invalid the 2018 referendum which prevents re-election. Then he could run again. Perhaps it could even give him time to ascend to the presidency in 2025, the year Ecuador returns to the polls after a short 16-month term to conclude Lasso’s unfinished legislature.”

Rafael Correa

Correa is in “exile”, as he himself indicates, because he was sentenced to eight years in prison and 25 years disqualified from holding public office. After governing between 2007 and 2016, the National Court convicted him and members of his government for the “2012-2016 corruption affair”, in which it was proven that his party had received funding through to funds from companies that have obtained state positions.

In the newspaper La Nación they consider this defeat of Correismo as a setback for the Latin American left, since there are still six presidents most aligned in this political direction (Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Venezuela, plus l Argentina), and It is likely that the trans-Andean elections will give Casa Rosada to the right.

Source: Latercera


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